Dropping Gas Prices - (January 19, 2016) – Falling crude oil prices around the world helped push the national average retail gasoline price to its lowest point since February 2009. The retail average has fallen 63 of the past 74 days, a total of 34 savings per gallon, coming to today's price of $1.88 per gallon. Natural gas prices fell seven cents a gallon during the week, the fastest rate of decline since mid-November. Motorists generally enjoy the drop in gas prices in early winter as the demand for gas decreases, and this also helps lower prices. Despite the recent decline, the national average gas price is just 18 cents per gallon lower than a year ago, as prices were also very low in early 2015.

Crude oil prices are down more than 70 percent from a June 2014 high of $107.26 a barrel, and expectations that both global and domestic supply will exceed demand are helping drivers save at the pumps. Oil prices continued to fall last week, with crude falling below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2003. AAA previously estimated that the annual average price of natural gas in 2016 would be 2.25-2, $45 a gallon, although oil prices are likely to fall even lower than at the start of the year if sharp declines in global oversupply and economic worries continue.

Dropping Gas Prices

Dropping Gas Prices

A total of 38 states post averages below $2 per gallon, and drivers in Oklahoma ($1.59), Missouri ($1.62) and Alabama ($1.65) pay the lowest prices in the nation. Gas prices are below the $1.75 benchmark in 17 states, up from seven states a week ago. California's retail average ($2.75) is the most expensive in the country and is relatively high due to lingering refinery problems affecting supply in the region. The Golden State followed regional neighbors: Hawaii ($2.63), Alaska ($2.48), Nevada ($2.41) and Washington ($2.32).

Aaa Gas Prices

Gas prices fell each week in every state, with the Midwest seeing the biggest drop over the period. Prices in the region are known to be volatile and fluctuations in production and distribution are usually reflected in pump prices. With refineries running smoothly and exceeding demand, motorists in Indiana (-16 cents), Ohio (-16 cents), Michigan (-15 cents) and Kentucky (-12 cents) are saving the most for week. Consumers in more than half of the states (32) save at least a nickel per gallon over the same period.

With the exception of Alaska (+9 cents) and California (+4 cents), the nation's two most expensive markets, consumers nationwide benefited from monthly savings in gas prices. Among states that posted rebates, pump prices fell by a nickel or more per gallon in every state and Washington, D.C. month-over-month, and the 39-state average and Washington, D.C. That's on top of reductions of a penny or more per gallon over the same period by motorists in Montana (-20 cents), Oklahoma (-20 cents), Indiana (-17 cents), Missouri (-16 cents) and in Illinois (- 16 cents) Enjoying maximum monthly savings.

Retail averages fell dramatically in January of last year, and as a result comparative savings are shrinking at the pump. However, most drivers continue to have annual savings. Prices are down year-over-year in 45 states and Washington, DC Motorists in a total of 39 states and Washington, DC benefit from double-digit savings. Hawaii (-69 cents) is the only state with an annual savings of more than 50 cents per gallon. Drivers in five states are paying more than a year earlier: California (+25 cents), Idaho (+20 cents), Nevada (+16 cents), Washington (+7 cents) and Utah (+5 cents).

Although oil prices rose mid-week, they returned lower towards the end of last week on expectations that Iranian oil will return to the market, which is believed to be a reality. Prolonged low prices have led to speculation about what has been described as "collateral damage," essentially the effect of low oil prices on other assets and markets. Reports on future prices and estimates of expected production losses from non-OPEC countries are published Many expect the oil market to begin to balance in 2016, but several questions remain. In particular, a central focus will be the impact of the return of Iranian oil to the market, and whether any changes in global oil demand will be significant enough to offset some of the current glut in supply.

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WTI closed last week at $1.78 and $29.42 a barrel. The NYMEX was closed yesterday for the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

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